Predicting the future
Predictions is a new report and functionality within Google Analytics for Firebase which aims to shed insight into the probability or likelihood that a user is going to carry out a particular action or behaviour within the next 7 days. This user level dimension comes in the form of a value between 0 - 100 with 0 being the least likely to convert and 100 being the most likely.
Although Google have decided to keep the finer details of their methodology under wraps, our analytics team has been carrying out similar advanced analysis techniques for many of our clients for quite some time:
See Will's blog for a more detailed explanation of regression analysis and statistical modelling techniques.
Below is an example of the report you’ll see in Google Analytics for Firebase (Grow -> Predictions). If it’s your first time using the report you will see predictions for just churn/not-churn and spend/not-spend - in which case you can set up custom predictions based on custom events you’ve implemented.
The report provides us with a visualisation of our configured predictions, how many users sit within the risk tolerance buckets (more on this another time) by dragging the slider, and then the option to target these users.
You’re also able to click into each prediction to get a view of the accuracy of the predictions made over the last 14 days so that you can be confident you’re targeting the correct users.
How can you use this insight?
It’s all well and good having the insight in the reporting interface but it needs to be translated into actions that drive improvement. Here are a few ways you can make use of this data in an effective way:
Put it into action
If used in the correct way Firebase Predictions could prove to be an extremely valuable tool to aid retention and re-engagement of users. Get in touch today to find out how we can help you leverage Firebase Predictions effectively!